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The Political Processes in the Middle East

By Sahak SHAHMURADIAN
Aliq newspaper correspondent
Tehran

In connection with the events, explosively developing in the Arab world at present, there have appeared some changes in the strategies of the powers from the West and East regarding the region of theMiddle East.

Really the situation in theMiddle Easthas reached such a complicated and uncontrollable situation that we should expect changes in the geopolitics and security in general. Such a development of events, as well as the positions and frequent interference of the regional and off-regional actors into the public and political processes in the Arab world show that a new picture of the Arab-Islamic world will be shaped as a result, and in the sphere of the international political, economical and strategic relations some new security balancers, as well as a new distribution of economical interests of the global powers will appear.

Taking into account the importance of the strategic, economical and oil-and-gas reserves of the Middle East for the USA, European Union, Russia and China, it is possible to suppose that the developing alarming situation in this region will require a consistent interference of the powers, and at present the priority for the United States and its western allies is the realization of strategic programs with a “trend” toward reducing the military, economical and political influence of Russia and China in the strategic regions of the Mediterranean Sea and Persian Gulf.

Taking into consideration that initially the public revolutions in the North Africa and Arab world had the shape of movements, aiming at establishment of democratic order and fair economic conditions, the present Democratic Administration of the United States and European powers held several rounds of bilateral and multilateral discussions concerning the military and political interference into the events in the Arab world, in which Russia and China took part from time to time, but afterwards, because of the  efforts of the western countries aimed  to increase their military  presence in the region, Moscow and Beijing  started to be opposed to the decisions, made by their partners concerning the Iranian and Syrian issues.

Remarkably, the development of such an alarming politics in the Middle East will not only have a functional impact on the correction of the geopolitical plans and calculations of  super powers, but will also influence the processes, connected with the future the West-Iran relations.

It is necessary to stress that the events, developing in the Middle East in the recent months, especially those inSyria, have paved the way for a new confrontation in the settlement of the protracted strategic problems between West andIran.

It is also symptomatic that concerning the events inSyriaandLebanon, theUnited Statesand its allies have got quite hostile position regarding the Bashar Asad regime and the groups, supporting him inLebanon. Thus, in addition to the political pressure and economical blockade ofSyriathere has appeared a resolution, adopted by the International Atomic Energy Agency, claiming thatSyriais among the countries, engaged in dubious nuclear activity. Undoubtedly, it is the same issue, for which theUnited Statesand European Union are blamingSyria’s ally,Iran.

In this situation theUSAand the leading EU countries are concerned with the possible penetration ofIran’s influence into the public movements, developing in theMiddle Eastcountries. In this sense Washington and its allies pursue an active policy to containIranfrom interference into the regional processes. Undoubtedly,Iranhas no intention to lose such a possibility, as far as its neighbouring countries, the Arab Emitares andTurkey, instigated by theUnited States, are enlarging their political, military and mediatory activity in the countries, which have found themselves in the zone of a “storm” of popular disturbances.

In the context of these events, the provisional government ofEgypt, having reviewed the policy of the overthrown authorities, expressed the willingness to restore relations withIranafte a 30-year long break. As it can be seen, the Iranian side, taking into account the  available extremebut even ly sensible events in the regions of the Middles East and Persian Gulf, quite mildly reacted to Cairo’s desire, but even the preliminary contacts are being hindered by the U.S. and Israel  through provocations and interference.

In the current situation in the Middle East the functional role ofIranandEgyptcan have a much bigger impact on the regional political processes, than the ordered activity of theU.S.allies -TurkeyandSaudi Arabiaand some small Arab countries, loyal to the Saudites.

Simultaneously with the public and political events, developing in the Middle East, the block of the western countries, out of their strategic interests, are trying to fish in the other troubled waters, otherwise speaking, to weaken Iran’s influence in Syria, Lebanon and the Persian Gulf states. Apparently, the intentions and attempts of theUnited Statesand leading European states to exert pressure on the UN to adopt a resolution againstSyriahas a clear perspective. Thus, the West, like withLibya, by all means will get the opportunity to interfere into the internal affairs ofSyria  with the aim of overthrowing its authorities. In case if such a scenario comes true, the positions ofIran, the Lebanese Hezbollah and Palestinian HAMAS in the region naturally will weaken.

It is necessary to note thatRussia, as a power, is also concerned with preservation of its positions in the Arab-Islamic world of theMiddle East. Unlike the above-mentioned plans of theUnited Statesand their European allies,Moscowdoes not want to lose the loyal government inSyria, its traditional ally in the Mediterranean and the important market for the Russian arms and military equipment, which has already happened withIraq. Bearing these considerations in mind,Moscowdoes not share theU.S.and Western efforts in the UN Security Council for adoption of a resolution againstSyria.

IfWashingtonsucceeds with its policy, aimed at toppling the leaderships inLibya,LebanonandSyria, then it will be possible to predict the drift ofIran’s positions towardRussiaandChina, which would mean that a new front will be opened, concerning the Middle East, andIranwill be one of its main actors.

The events, developing in the region, allow to suppose that the mediator countries do not exhibit tendencies to change their intentions.

In the current situation the international and regional forces are playing with the fire, bursting out in theMiddle East, and it is not known yet, which powers would lick the flames, and whose interests will be guaranteed on the regional and international level.